Betting Interleague Baseball

For my first post back to the Tips and Tools Sheet I wanted to cover interleague baseball and how to bet it. I found this article online and it seems very helpful.

When Bud Selig retires from the commissioner’s office, he will be a much discussed figure and his legacy and value to the position will be debated vehemently on both sides. Among the positives aspects Bud has brought to baseball is interleague play. Purists will hold on to the arcane argument it dilutes the purity of the game and who cares about Kansas City playing Colorado. To that end, who cares about Kansas City playing any of the regular American League teams? Just like in any sport, not every game is or needs to be important. This weekend we have the best of the best in regional match-ups with outstanding betting choices. I’ve talked to a lot of oddsmakers and handicappers over the years and most hate interleague play. The most common complaint is it breaks the rhythm of the season. Patterns develop that oddsmakers can follow on every team. Certain teams may cause more problems then others; however by and large most of those who make the numbers struggle in making sides and totals for interleague play. A former line maker in Las Vegas, who now is part of an offshore operation, explained it this way, “Baseball more then any other sport has its pace. Streaks are common; you can ride hot or cold teams. This interleague nonsense messes all this up. Especially in the big towns, these games mean something in New York, Chicago, Frisco and L.A. The managers and the players in most cases feel these are nothin’ more then exhibition games, but they’re not. In each of these cities one team is the more popular. The team that is the second class citizen and probable underdog in town, feeds off the emotion of jammed stadium and win 2 of 3 or sweeps the series. Overall my business actually picks up a little because of the interest, but I’ve had wild swings of cash flow, it can really hurt.”


To get another opinion on interleague play I checked in with an old friend Kevin, who has been a professional gambler for the last 15 years. Kevin shared his thoughts on interleague play. “I find it humorous how anxious everyone becomes about interleague baseball. It fills the stadiums, creates more interest in the sport, it’s great. For what I do, hey baseball is baseball. Somebody has to throw it, somebody’s has to hit it and somebody has to catch it. Personally I find it a refreshing during a long season and it helps me refocus. I’ve often been able to take advantage of shaky numbers from people I respect, who for whatever reason become unsure of themselves during these games. Don’t make handicapping hard is one of my rules. Good teams are good and bad teams are bad. When Buddy (Selig) started this in 1997, it was new. Now we have plenty of information on the history of all the teams. In the National League, the Fish have the best winning percentage just below .600 (actually .571) and Atlanta in second. How have the Braves done in the last 10 years? Part of the reason is bashing the American League teams. When Florida had World Series winners or pretty fair teams, they killed the AL. Worst team in NL interleague play, Pittsburgh is that really surprising? Doug, I’ve told you many times about Oakland when the leagues play against each other. The A’s will fatten your bank account in interleague play with one best records of all the teams. I’ve also told you to Play Against Tampa and the Royals and I’m adding Baltimore to the list, who now has the worse record then the other two crumbs. These teams are rotten all the time and playing against them (in interleague play) will make money.”


This will mark the 11th season of interleague play, providing substantial data to look at and compare teams. Just as before, 252 games will be played in two segments, one is this weekend and the other is June 8th-24th. This season, American League East clubs will play chiefly against the National League West; N.L. Central teams will oppose teams from the A.L. West; and N.L. East clubs will take on the A.L. Central. Teams will continue to play their primary rival in two series which is what we’ll have this weekend.


In a decade of interleague play, the A.L. has a 1,250-1,202 (.510) edge over the National League. In 2006, the A.L. overtook the N.L. in the all-time mark with a 154-98 thumping. They were led by Minnesota and Boston followed closely by Detroit and Chicago. The Twins and Red Sox were both 16-2 last season, as Minny was +14.9 units and the BoSox +14.4 units. The Tigers were 15-3 and the White Sox 14-4, good for +8.5 units. What was surprising and only those that played them would remember, Colorado was the top team in the National League in 2006 with 11-4 record for +8.45 units.


A few recent trends are mostly negative and all involve National League teams. The Dodgers are 10-23 -15.9 units, giving credence as them being a play against team. The Cubs are very close to at 10-20 -8.95 units and mildly flabbergasting is the Mets at 11-19 the last two seasons, giving up -10.65 units. Until this year, Atlanta had been the best bet for National League teams; however the last three years has caused them to fall from lofty perch with 20-28 mark. Arizona’s rebuilding over the last three years has also shown up in interleague play with 18-33 record, losing 15.5 units.


The Yankees have supplanted Oakland as the best team in baseball by percent points (.589 vs. .585), yet because of being overvalued, seldom a good wager unless playing the other New York team when the odds are more fair, especially these days. If you like rollercoaster rides, Tampa Bay may be a good choice this season. In the last four years starting with 2003, the Devils Rays have gone 3-15, 15-3, 3-15 and 11-7. Is this the year they go backwards again?
This weekend there are four main rivalries that will have the blood boiling of the fans and players admit they do get caught up in the emotion. The Windy City series starts the action, the Subway Series in New York, the I-5 in Los Angeles confrontation and the Bay Area battle. Other intriguing series to wager on are the neighboring states encounters, Minnesota at Milwaukee and Baltimore at Washington. In-state scuffles include Texas at Houston, Cincinnati at Cleveland and Florida at Tampa Bay. Thou not a natural rivalry, Atlanta and Boston have more the feel of a good NCAA football game matching strong teams from different conferences. Because of the imbalance of teams in each league Arizona and Pittsburgh will have to wait to later in the season to participate and instead go head to head. Sportsbook.com will have series odds to wager on and of course individual games on the side and totals.
As our professional gambler would say “The bases are still 90 feet apart and the pitcher is still throwing to home plate from 60 feet 6 inches, just bet the game.”